| Beyond a doubt, blogging has a bright future. It's | | | | million blogs in the world as of today, while the |
| tempting to get carried away by all the exuberance | | | | number of telephones world-wide (fixed-line and |
| being generated. | | | | mobile) is around 2 billion. This is not to take anything |
| Bill Gates says blogging "will fundamentally change | | | | away from the success of blogging, but only to |
| how we document our lives". Technorati's CEO David | | | | establish (an admittedly somewhat crude) benchmark! |
| Sifry says that there are 11 blog posts being made | | | | However, we've looked at only half the picture so |
| every second! | | | | far - becoming successful. Success brings its own |
| While this may well be true, we must resist the | | | | problems, and sure enough, blogging too will need to |
| temptation to get carried away. Let's analyze | | | | overcome a couple of challenges that success brings |
| blogging's prospects as a 'personal technology', or a | | | | with it: |
| technology that individuals use to improve their | | | | Better ways to manage 'blog clutter'. |
| effectiveness or productivity, or simply to have fun. | | | | Even with the current number of blogs out there, it is |
| All successful personal technologies that gain | | | | becoming difficult for people to navigate the |
| widespread use (be it the humble pen, the telephone | | | | blogosphere. Telephones or email don't need to solve |
| or the iPod), bear certain hallmarks: they are easy to | | | | this problem as they are 'push' technologies, which |
| use, fulfil a basic need, and provide a new way to | | | | means that you *want* to restrict who can contact |
| express an existing behavior or habit. Technologies | | | | you using these technologies. However, if blogs are |
| that make the cut on these three respects tend to | | | | to truly live up to their promise of allowing the |
| 'take-off', with their use surging steeply*. | | | | 'discovery' of like-minded folks, then blog search |
| Blogging certainly fulfils a basic need, the need for | | | | engines should (and will) get smarter. |
| self-expression and social interaction. It is also more | | | | Search is of course not the only way to manage |
| powerful in many respects than other technologies | | | | clutter - for example, Business Week's Heather |
| that meet similar needs - the telephone, email or | | | | Green talks about creating 'influential blogger' lists. |
| online chatting - in that it is more 'permanent', and | | | | Blogging needs to find ways to enable diverse |
| allows visibility to anyone who can access the Web. | | | | communication needs |
| It also provides a new way to exercise our natural | | | | Blogging tools already do a half-decent job of allowing |
| propensity to form groups with like-minded folks, by | | | | the sharing of digital content. However, as camera |
| allowing us to form 'virtual communities' on the Web. | | | | phones proliferate, sharing pictures and movies will |
| It also allows people to 'discover' others with similar | | | | increasingly become mainstream. Also blogging from |
| tastes, wherever they may be in the world. | | | | heterogenous devices (phones and home appliances |
| Well, that leaves ease of use. I am afraid blogging is | | | | come to mind) is likely to need support. |
| somewhat less stellar in this respect - while it is | | | | Of course, this piece only addresses blogging as a |
| simpler than creating personal Web pages, it still lags | | | | 'personal technology'. Analysis of its prospects in |
| far behind the telephone and email in ease of use. So, | | | | business - which are fledgling at the moment - is the |
| ease of use is the first thing that needs to improve | | | | subject of a different discussion altogether! |
| about blogs (I hope the blog tool-makers are | | | | _______________ |
| listening). | | | | *This is driven by Metcalfe's Law, which holds that |
| If one is tempted to argue that blogging is already | | | | the usefulness of something increases exponentially |
| very successful, one only needs to pause to consider | | | | as the number of users goes up. |
| the numbers: by most estimates there are around 80 | | | | |